Forex Teach

Calendar for the week .

After a long absence we are back to give to your court our vision of the market. (more ...)

Calendar for the week .
It is difficult to assess what is more influenced by the rapid depreciation of the euro / dollar on Friday, rumors of a possible default in Hungary or bad data on unemployment in the U.S.. But in a compartment that gave reduced to 4 year lows (1.1950), despite the fact that the week closed with a minus mark at 1.1966. Obviously, investors try to minimize their risks shifting their assets into less risky financial instruments. (more ...)

<<Elliott Wave

The depth of corrective waves as one of the options market (outside of a bear market)

To date, there is no market-based approach, which would have been able to give a precise answer to the perennial question "At what level will stop falling bear market?". Practice shows that the correction in most cases carry a maximum recoil before the land on which development takes place the previous fourth wave of a lower level. As a rule, the maximum recoil corrections to the level observed in approximately the end of the previous wave. In particular, this applies to those situations where the correct themselves serve as fourth waves.

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<<Elliott Wave

The depth of corrective waves as one of the options market (outside of a bear market)

To date, there is no market-based approach, which would have been able to give a precise answer to the perennial question "At what level will stop falling bear market?". Practice shows that the correction in most cases carry a maximum recoil before the land on which development takes place the previous fourth wave of a lower level. As a rule, the maximum recoil corrections to the level observed in approximately the end of the previous wave. In particular, this applies to those situations where the correct themselves serve as fourth waves.
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<<Elliott Wave

Plane or the so-called flat correction is a special wave design on its configuration resembles a zigzag. However, unlike the latter, the sequence subwaves flat correction in its structure can be represented as 3-3-5. Intuitively, the wave structure of the flat correction is shown in Fig. 1-29 and 1-30. (more ...)

GBPUSD . EURJPY . USDCHF . Economic Calendar for the week

The euro / dollar is still trading in an ascending corridor. After a sharp fall in prices on Thursday bounced from the bottom of the channel, closing the Friday session at 1.4901 marks. This means that the lower limit of the channel continues to serve as support for the upward trend. (more ...)

USDCHF . EURUSD . GBPUSD . Economic Calendar for the week

Euro / yen continues to fluctuations in the designated interval. After two weeks ago, bounced a couple of lines of support , quotes, couples rose to 135.47. It is noteworthy that the maximum value reached by the market after the resumption of growth is the upper limit of the Bollinger bands at a mark of 136.06. If you look like a pair behaved in the past six months, it is easy to see that the cases when the couple move outside the bands are very rare. Therefore, it would be logical to expect the correction to the level of 133.60 - 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels , or up to 132.81 - 50%. The depth of the correction will depend on the speed with which it will occur. We see the center line of the Bollinger Bands as a magnet price, and if the correction would be aggressive, then the line is simply no time to rise above the 38.2% Fibonacci. Confirmation by the beginning of the correction will yield curve indicator Stochastic from the overbought, which in itself is a signal to sell.

Recommendations for next week:

• sell below 134.90 (Friday's low) to 133.60 or 132.80. Limiting losses 136.23.

• Buy above 136.30 to 138.20. Limiting losses 135.50.

EURJPY . USDCHF . EURUSD . Economic Calendar for the week

Last week, the pound went up sharply against the U.S. dollar. The main reason for this rapid growth was the publication on Tuesday of the index of housing prices in the UK, whose growth was 22%, which is significantly larger than expected 15%. From a technical point of view, this increase is justified by the fact that since the end of September was trading at a couple of lines of support , which passed the level of 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (blue) from an eight-month growth. Despite such rapid growth is still too early to talk about finishing the correction of the upward trend that began 2.5 months ago. To do this, that was overcome by the level of 61.8% Fibonacci level of a two-month drop (green). In addition to exit the channel formed by a bear, it will bind to the former and support the bullish trend line, which in this case will act in the capacity of the line of resistance . In addition, this growth will confirm the growth signal from the two moving averages .

Despite all logic the above scenario, we are inclined to believe that the correction is not yet complete and that the pound will continue to lose value after the resistance line. This is because the growth of the last week has resulted in a pair overbought condition (according to the testimony of % R ), while in the days of aggressive buying is observed to decrease tick volume of transactions.

Recommendations for next week:

• sell below 1.6490 with targets 1.6250, 1.5700. Stop Loss 1.6540.

• Buy above 1.6540 to 1.6680-16730. Stop Loss 1.6490.

<<Elliott Wave

In his 1938 book "The Wave" and again in a series of articles published in 1939, the magazine Financial World, RN Elliott pointed out that the stock market is developing in line with the basic rhythm or a model of five waves up and three waves down, forming a complete cycle of eight waves. Model of five waves up followed by three waves down is shown in Fig.1-2.
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<<Elliott Wave

The development of market prices in the long run, takes the shape of five waves of a special structure. Three of them are marked with numbers 1, 3 and 5, really make the direction. They are separated by two setbacks (countertrend interruptions) - waves of opposite direction, are marked numerals 2 and 4, as shown in Fig.1-1. These two rollback, no doubt, are an integral part of the overall directional movement.
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<EURJPY> <EURUSD> <Economic Calendar for the week>

Filed two weeks before a sell signal on the two moving averages turned out to be false, and the pound against the dollar went up in the wake of a general cheapening of the dollar on the Forex market. Based on the testimony of technical indicators, namely the Williams Percent Range% R , the pair is in overbought. This means that in case the price is below Friday's low 1.6643, we see a correction. Likely that the correction will stop at support 1.4619, which corresponds to 50% of the two-week growth is from MA (57).

At the same time on the graph shows an unfinished upward movement, the aim of which is 1.6860 - the upper limit koridoa and 50% from last fall. Growth is possible in case the price above Friday's high.

<GBPUSD> <EURJPY> <Economic Calendar for the week>

In the past week, the Forex market has given us a welcome growth in the euro / dollar. Upon reaching the level of resistance in the 1.4635 growth stopped, but contrary to expectations, a strong correction was not held. This means that the correction due to profit-taking may occur at the beginning of the coming week, probably on Monday, because of the publication of economic forecasts of the European Commission and Yellen speech in San Francisco on the economic outlook. The expected correction would lower the price to the support line or to the level of Fibonacci retracement of 38.2%.

At the same time the likelihood of further growth remains. In this case we recommend to refrain from buying until until the market consolidates above 1.4700. I want to note that this is not a touch of this level of price fixing and above it. The fact that this week reached 1.4632 mark is in the immediate vicinity of the correction level 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the fall of last year. This means that in this area struggle between bulls and bears will be tightening, and there is a high probability of false breakouts. Therefore, you should refrain from buying until the break is confirmed.

<<4.5.1 Trend technical indicators

(Commodity Channel Index, CCI)

Technical Indicator Commodity Channel Index (Commodity Channel Index, CCI) measures the deviation of price from its statistical mean. High index values ​​indicate that the price is unusually high compared to average, and low - that is too low. Despite the name, Commodity Channel Index is applicable to any financial instrument, not just commodities.
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<<4.5.1 Trend technical indicators

(Bollinger Bands, BB)

Bollinger Bands were created by John Bollinger (John Bollinger), financial and technical analyst, president and founder of Bollinger Capital Management, Inc., - An investment company specializing in financial asset management to individuals and corporations.
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<<4.4.Chisla Fibonacci

Fibonacci fans are built the same way as the Fibonacci Arcs. We construct a trend line between two extremes. (more ...)

<<4.3.Grafichesky analysis

In accordance with the second postulate of technical analysis, which states that prices move directionally, but quotes the level of demand and supply. If the demand for a currency exceeds the supply, the rate of the currency, relative to the rest of the increases, and vice versa, if supply exceeds demand, the exchange rate falls. (more ...)